Rafik Amara, Senior Gas Market Analyst at the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, highlighted that nearly 400 billion cubic meters (BCM) of new LNG capacity is expected worldwide over the next ten years, with half coming from the U.S., a quarter from Qatar and the rest from Canada, Mozambique and West Africa. Yet African LNG could gain an edge – even with global demand forecast at just 270 BCM over the same period, creating potential oversupply – due to factors limiting U.S. competitiveness.

“There is room for African LNG. When prices dropped in 2020, U.S. LNG was the first to halt exports – it’s not a competitive marginal producer,” Amara said. “With Henry Hub prices recently falling to $5/MMBtu, and considering liquefaction and shipping costs, African LNG will be much more competitive.” He added that Europe’s desire to diversify its energy portfolio further enhances Africa’s opportunity.

Dominique Gadelle, VP Early Engagement Gas at Technip Energies, noted structural limits in U.S. gas resources. “If you consider conventional resources, the U.S. is not able to sustain this level of exports for decades… We might even see a national preference for domestic gas use in the future,” he said, adding that shipping costs alone account for 10–15% of final LNG prices.

Panelists highlighted Africa’s prime positioning for global LNG markets. West African producers – including Mauritania, Senegal, Nigeria and Ivory Coast – are close to European markets, reducing transportation costs. East African projects in Mozambique and Tanzania sit near fast-growing Asian markets, where LNG is increasingly displacing coal and fuel oil.

Global LNG production currently stands at around 480 million tons, with an additional 230 million tons expected online by 2030. Gadelle noted that most of this capacity is already sanctioned, leaving only 40–50 million tons per year still to be approved over the next three to four years. “There is clearly space for African LNG, but it must be taken quickly. Time to market is critical: projects need to reach FID between 2025 and 2027, at the latest. Beyond that, the window narrows and the market share will already be allocated,” he said.

Gadelle also emphasized evolving project strategies, noting a shift from mega-projects to intermediate-scale LNG trains of 2.5–3 million tons per year. “These sizes are better integrated in terms of technology and equipment, and allow more flexibility in the market,” he said. Smaller trains allow phased financing, quicker revenue flow and earlier bank repayment, making projects more feasible for African producers.

Amara stressed that governments and investors must balance foreign market ambitions with domestic benefits. “We should not produce gas completely for foreign markets at the highest margin, while populations in-country struggle. Using gas domestically adds value for all African countries,” he said, underscoring the need for a win-win approach.